UNDERSTANDING SHINZO ABE ECONOMIC POLICY BY PROFESSOR DR.ANTON CARAGEA, MA, FINS,EDA

Dr. Anton Caragea had draft an analysis of the policies implemented by Japanese Prime Minister-Shinzo Abe in the last year of government and is presenting the main figures of what is called today as abenomics. 

Just two years ago the key words about Japan where summarized in the expression: lost decades. After 1990, Japan seems to be fallen in along period marked by stagnation and by natural disasters such as Kobe earthquake and more recent Fukushima tsunami.

On economic field, the country that once towered over the region as an international symbol of economic growth in the sixties and seventies, was struggling now with hipper-inflation, reduced economic competitiveness and the unfair competition of cheep and low quality products of China.

The man who succeeded in pulling up the country from tittering on the brink of the abyss: Shinzo Abe had managed also to enrich the economic vocabulary with a new term: abenomics (a strange mingling of his name-Abe and economics).

What is abenomics?          

The economic policy that allowed a new Japanese economic miracle to appear was created by a seasoned and sophisticated mixture of direct state investment in economy and indirect state buying of Japanese National Bank bonds, a move that allowed for the credit to be cheaper and more relaxed and for interest rates to decrease.

This infusion of capital was not planed as a sole engine for economic growth  but was planed to aid and support private investment as the key factor in economic development.

State sponsored investment is just an auxiliary, a support and confidence booster in economic growth and an ingredient to further increase private confidence in economy.

Another key element of the economic stimulus plan is offered by the increase in competitiveness of the Japanese products by means of financial support, including currency devaluation that is insuring that national products are cheaper and more attractive and by fiscally backing increases in competitiveness.

Finally, what is making Japanese prime minister plan different is the accent on fighting the inflation and keeping it under control.

As a golden rule, any stimulus package must bear the responsibility of an increase in inflation. Is not the case with Japan where abenomics is creating a serious anti-inflation package with controlling the spike in wages, strict taxation and export oriented growth rather that stimulus of internal consumption.

All are specific measures that are making abenomics a balanced experience between growth and inflation, competitiveness and exports etc. Finally, another trait of the abenomics that deserves our attention is the social management plan.

The pension system, social security and health systems are all regarded as pivots of the economic growth but also of national satisfaction.

Proceeding by this path the Abe government is not falling down the easy road of electoral charity, as done in United States or Europe, but is opting for investing the economic surplus in indirect social expenses that are enriching life quality without inflation as a side effect.

A new inspired decision!

Abenomics-an international model?  

Once the first results of abenomics are becoming visible. the plan enjoyed a star status, many economists are predicting a role model for these economic policies, famous economic thinkers as Joseph Stiglitz, risking the prophecy that abenomics will be a successful blue print for world economy.

The general interest was also attracted by the elevation of economic situation at the level of national security agenda.

It is in this decision a message of seriousness and maximum attention that Shinzo Abe government is portraying as a supplementary strong point of the Japanese economy in front of the national and international private investors.

The status of national economy becomes as such an element of national security and your investments are sure, is the subliminal message that Japan is offering to the investment market as a new powerful arguments in his favour.

Undoubtedly, the news of the hay days of Japanese economy is a good news for world economy already deeply endangered by the collapse of Chinese economy.

The abenomics can be only used by the country which already has build a powerful economic apparatus, with a developed industrial mechanism like European Union members states or American economy, as we are confronted with an economic experience that is focused on refining the economic decisions in preventing inflation and insuring a healthy and stable economic development after the current world economic crisis.

As such the abenomics model must be understood and copied by the world economic powers in order to allow a solution to emerge out of this world economic crisis.

By this alone the abenomics can be the most valuable contribution that Japan is presenting in re-launching the world economy development and by extracting the world out of this auto-regenerating crisis.

Today, thanks to abenomics, Japan can rest assured as his role model in world economic recovery is guaranteed.

Tajikistan: cradle of civilization by Professor Anton Caragea MA, FINS , DR.H.C.

In September 2011 Tajikistan will mark the anniversary of 20 years of independence. It is a moment to contemplate with proud, as the country succeeded, in a short span of time, to build an independent administration, a powerful army, a strong economy and a society of social equilibrium and respect for citizen’s rights. Especially the years of mandate of President Emomali Rahmon had paved the way for asserting Tajikistan role on international arena, for supporting the tajik art, culture and historic patrimony resurgence and are undoubtedly a renaissance era in the history of people of Tajikistan.

This astonishing achievements in a difficult region could not have being possible without a powerful cultural base and a long tradition of statehood, of bright civilization and a rich history that proved that Tajik people are creators of wonderful crafts and arts. Tajikistan history is not confined to the last 20 years; Tajikistan must be reminded is the place of birth of fabulous Oxus Treasure that highlighted the heritage of Persian Empire and the craftsmanship of tajik ancestors.

Tajikistan is also the birthplace of Zoroastrism, faith that build an empire of fire worshipers and high moral beliefs from Tajikistan to today Pakistan and Mediterranean Sea.

Just a short counting of the Empires that have their political and cultural center in Tajikistan is impressive: Samanids, Ghaznavids, Kara Kitai, Mongols, Khorezem, and Timurid etc.  Putting in the spot light this heritage, offering to the world the information`s necessary to understand that Tajikistan is one of the top art and civilization creators in the world, with an important contribution to world heritage, it is a necessity. To respond to this necessity the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan, the fine intellectual Hamrokhon Zarifi had succeeded in collecting with a passion of the art collector  and the knowledge of the historian, documents, astonishing images and pictures of tajik arts and crafts trough centuries.  The result is a monumental book: TAJIK ARTS AND CRAFTS TROUGH CENTURIES offering, in the front of the surprised and unfamiliar reader, the images of a rich culture and of an ingenious and extremely talented people that leaved a clear mark on history.

The monumental masterpiece TAJIK ARTS AND CRAFTS TROUGH CENTURIES is at the same time: a complete inventory of art treasures and creations of tajik people, an exhaustive image of the traditions and historical influence of the tajik craftsman over the arts in all Central Asia and a repertoire of historic discoveries on the territory of republic of Tajikistan. In 19 chapters, like on a flying carpet, the avid reader will familiarized himself to the impressive art and civilization of tajik people.

The books succeed the rare achievement of analyzing, through impressive photographs and clear descriptions, not only the art of tajik`s, but to related this with the history and with geography of the country. A chapter of embroidery will present you the intricate and luxurious tajik patterns, full of gold and precious colors. I will draw the attention of the readers to models showing the influence of tajik art on the Khorezem art (XII-XIII century) and Safavid Persia, moments when tajik art influence spreads from the banks of Amur Daria to Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf. The gold embroidery and jewelers design will prove that tajik craftsman and tajik patterns conquered the imaginations of the rulers of the world. From the Omayyad Court in Baghdad to the Chinese Emperor court the luxurious models of tajik arts and tajik specialists where attracted to the Asian imperial courts as a proof of the ingenuity of tajik craftsman`s.

TAJIK ARTS AND CRAFTS TROUGH CENTURIES also pays a special attention to the impressive national cloths, head wares and foot wears chapters. This chapters present to the reader in the same time the similarity of the national cloths of tajik people to the Central Asian national cloths pattern, but also pay homage to the ingenuity of tajik people who always knew to make something to stand apart from the crowd: either a splendid tree of life pattern, either a solar image, either a splendid Kara Kitai motive.

Reading the attentive historical and ethnographical explanation of the book, admiring the picturesque images included in the book you cannot wonder how Tajik people succeeded in making the transition from the small art, ephemeral art of cloth and house art, to the impressive big art, ceremonial art of palaces, governmental houses, summer houses and decorative architecture.

I cannot appreciate enough the legacy that a monument like Mir Said Hamadoni Tomb in Kulab is offering to the world: the architectural solutions used in this monument are a proof of the independent mind and wealth of knowledge of tajik builders and the intricate models of designed used to decorate the monument, to recreate the image of Islamic paradise cannot be matched.

It is also an important achievement of this book that is uniting the legacy of the past with the present day creations of tajik crafts and art makers that proof that the ancestors magic and craftsmanship is not lost and even today tajik people can create masterpiece of world level.

Kurramshahr Entertaining Center or Varzob Government Country residence are impressive paraphernalia, witnessing that tajik art is re-living today a new epoch of glory and recognition. The capacity of integrating the art monuments in the nature is one of the key of tajik success in art and resilience trough the centuries and Varzob Palace is a symbol that this capacity is not lost but is living again in the soul of tajik craftsman. The same is valid for the famous Teahouse in Khorugh that elevated wooden crafts to mastery creating a wood marvels that astonish by beautiful model the researcher of today arts phenomena.

TAJIK ARTS AND CRAFTS TROUGH CENTURIES it is a successful claim to international recognition of Tajikistan art, as a role model for the world and as an intrinsic part of humankind patrimony.

This book is the perfect gift for 20 years of independence anniversary of Tajikistan, announcing to the world that Tajikistan it a cultural patrimony household name, with a history dating back to more than 2.500 years, a country that made a powerful contribution to humanity patrimony and can stand with the head high and say: Tajikistan is a name that will always be recognized as the cradle of civilization.

Professor Anton Caragea has accepted to become a member of AntiCrisis Forum/ Profesorul Anton Caragea a acceptat sa participe la Forumul AntiCriza

 

 

Stimate domnule prof. Mircea Coşea, 

 

Am primit cu bucurie vestea înfiinţării Forumului AntiCriză din România sub conducerea dumneavoastră.

Forumul Anticriză este o necesitate în aceste momente când criza economică, începută în 2007 în Statele Unite, a devenit o criză mondială, care prin efecte şi dimensiuni aminteşte deja de Marea Criză Economică din 1929-1933.

Din nefericire,  precum în 1929 şi acum, România se trezeşte nepregătită şi economic şi financiar şi ceea ce este mai grav nici politic şi nici ideatic.

Cu o clasă politică dezbinată, cu ameninţătoare şi legitime conflicte sociale la orizont, fără o comunitate de interese şi ajutor între patronate şi sindicate şi cu o economie nesănătoasă România se pregăteşte pentru primul val al crizei, iar consecinţele nu pot fi decât grave.

 Lansarea unui Forum AntiCriză în România îmi apare, din aceste nenumărate motive,  neîndoielnic o iniţiativă utilă şi importantă.

Fără un Forum AntiCriză România nu are nici o şansă să realizeze un program coerent de ieşire din prăbuşirea economică.

Fără un Forum AntiCriză nu putem ajunge la acele soluţii, naţional acceptate, care să ne ofere un plan de salvare în faţa crizei care deja macină fundaţiile economiei româneşti.

Mă onorează totodată rugămintea dumneavoastră de a fi alături în acest Forum AntiCriză şi nu pot decât să răspund afirmativ.

Am fost împreună pe parcursul anilor 2007 şi 2008, când am fost primii care am avertizat că prăbuşirea pieţei imobiliare din S.U.A. va antrena o criză economică mondială.

Am fost primii care am avertizat, în pofida asigurărilor liniştitoare ale guvernului Tăriceanu, că această criză economică va afecta grav România, mi se pare normal să fiu alături de dvs. acum când trebuie să gândim soluţiile necesare ieşirii din criză.

În aceste condiţii nu pot decât să fiu alături de dvs. în acest nou efort pentru a da României o şansă şi românilor un viitor mai bun.

 

Cu cele mai bune sentimente,

Prof.univ. dr. Anton Caragea

Deciphering Barack Obama

Deciphering Obama

                       

Today, after three weeks from the presidential take over ceremony in United States every body is trying to decipher what will be the next policy of Washington under the President elect Barack Obama.

Even at a glimpse the international agenda left behind by President Bush is a difficult one: war in Iraq and Afghanistan, crisis in Pakistan, tension relation with Russia, frictions with Europe, problems in Africa , every one will see that the next president is going to have his hands full with this agenda.

But what are Baracks Obama one interests in this international agenda. What is making the man tick on international issues?

We have a lot of information on what the new presidents intentions are by his foreign policy interviews, articles, and speeches and already established interest points on his agenda.

 

A new image for U.S.

 

The new president is highly concerned with the drop of America’s popularity all around the world. This is a major issue the Obama wants to tackle by dismantling Guantanamo Bay Prison, by releasing the inmates that have being proven innocent and transferring to civil courts in US the cases already build by US prosecution , instead on judging the offenders on military courts as Bush administration wanted to do. Also the new administration will ban the Executive Orders of President Bush that allowed US troops to attack any country and any position around the world suspected of helping, financing, training or supporting terrorist activities.

Also, Obama administration announced very clearly that will renounced at Bush doctrine of preempting strike and going alone doctrine that give to US the right to  act without his allies as in Iraq offensive case.

The preemptive strike will not be completely abolished; by will require under the new administration the approval of NATO members and key allies before being applied.

 

U.S. relation with Europe.

 

Relation with Europe, badly damage after the US invasion of Iraq is also high on President elect Obama`s agenda. US will be once more a strong supporter of the European Union construction and enlargement. Barack Obama is ready to restore to UE the role of consultant and key decision maker in Europe and Africa region. In Berlin speech Obama offered to E.U. a partnership in expansion of democratic values and free market economy in Africa, Middle East and Eastern Europe. While G. Bush favored the military expansion in Eastern Europe ( by promoting Baltic States in NATO, supporting Ukraine and Georgia bid to NATO and building the missile Shield in Poland  ) the  new president is preferring using E.U. membership option and E.U. cooperation plans to promote softer relation in Eastern Europe.   Also on Europe chapter president elect Barack Obama is favoring a detente in relation with Russia: suspending military aid to Georgia, stopping NATO presence on the Black Sea , redrawing support for Ukraine and Georgia bid to join NATO and renouncing at the plans to build the Missile Shield in Eastern Europe every thing announced a new era of Russia-US relationship .

 

Obama and the U.S. military complex.

 

 Is Barack Obama a pacifist? Not a bit, he is a realist on the line of Woodrow Wilson theory of a concert of free nation that will prevail against any threats (This theory marked the US involvement in First World War and in building the League of Nations- the predecessor of today United Nation). 

Obama is determined to increase the military budget (already doubled in size from the Clinton era) by 25% in his first term in office. He already advocated this increase by saying that US are involved in two major military actions and needs to increase and modernize his military apparatus. The retreat from Iraq will only include military combat troops, technicians, private contractors, private army (as Black water troops and US air strike capability will be left in place to support the Iraqi government). On Iran agenda all thou that Barack Obama is not an advocate of ground invasion (as J. McCain was) his stands on Iran will still be a harsh one. A nuclear Iran is unacceptable, he pointed out. As a paradox: the redrew from Iraq will offer Obama the free hand to deal with Iran, even by air strikes without fearing on repercussions to US troops on the ground. So a coalition against Iran is still one the president agenda and with new relations with Russia and E.U he could be even better position then G. Bush to make strong pressure on Teheran. Also the decision to redraw from Iraq will be a good one for Afghanistan where lack of troops and financial aid make the country a safe haven for Al Qaeda and Taliban’s.  

 

Obama and China.

 

If the new US president is keen on cooperating with Europe, ease tensions with Russia; redraw from Iraq then why such a military build up is still necessary?

Obama`s see the danger for the US coming from China. Every line of foreign policy speech is a reflection of his willingness for a stronger attitude towards China. Only in the last 6 month he declared that: US market is threatened by the import from China, by the trade deficit with China, by piracy on electronic products from China. In his best seller: The Audacity of hope, Barack Obama states clearly that:  “In the XXI century the major challenge from military and economic point of view to US is from China…. and for this we have to be prepared” (p.313).

In recent weeks after the election also declared that is inadmissible that U.S. currency is tied to China and that US deficit is supported by Chinese loans.

This is not mean that Obama is determined to have a stand off with China but is determine not to allow China to challenge US supremacy in Asia-Pacific region.

 

New down.

 

At the new down of Barack Obama administration the president seems decided to change the world: a new military doctrine, a shift in focus to Asia-Pacific region, controls over Middle East, better relations with Russia an E.U. and a new image for United States in the world. Bush and Obama could not be more different on foreign policy aspects. What will mean Obama legacy to the world? Let’s wait and see. Change has definitely come to White House.               

 

                      

Professor Anton Caragea PhD, M.A., FINS.